Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202023 231020 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80     57.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  27.3  22.6  24.0  23.0  28.8  22.2  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  58.0  61.0  69.0  78.0  82.0  76.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0 114.0  64.0  28.0  24.0  40.0  47.0  48.0  N  F  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  59.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  64.0  60.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   9.0   5.0   5.0   8.0   0.0   8.0   6.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.6%        3.9%        3.8%
 25kt / 24h       17.4%       29.3%       23.4%
 30kt / 24h        9.0%       16.0%       12.5%
 35kt / 24h        4.1%       15.5%        9.8%
 40kt / 24h        4.1%       15.4%        9.7%
 45kt / 36h       14.2%       21.2%       17.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.3%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h       18.0%       14.5%       16.2%
 70kt / 48h        7.4%        4.2%        5.8%
 65kt / 72h       33.3%       11.0%       22.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.66

 AL202023 231020 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80     57.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  27.3  22.6  24.0  23.0  28.8  22.2  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  59.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  64.0  60.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   9.0   5.0   5.0   8.0   0.0   8.0   6.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%