Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202023 231020 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00     58.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  22.3  24.7  25.2  27.9  24.4  28.8  32.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  56.0  63.0  71.0  75.0  77.0  69.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 104.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   122.0  54.0  13.0  22.0  40.0  21.0  65.0  46.0  F  N  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  63.0  64.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   7.0   5.0   9.0   4.0   8.0   4.0   3.0  U  N  N  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       23.9%       15.5%       19.7%
 25kt / 24h       43.4%       52.8%       48.1%
 30kt / 24h       30.2%       42.0%       36.1%
 35kt / 24h       26.4%       42.0%       34.2%
 40kt / 24h       26.4%       40.8%       33.6%
 45kt / 36h       30.5%       35.7%       33.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       16.7%        8.4%
 55kt / 48h       21.8%       21.7%       21.7%
 70kt / 48h        8.1%        7.2%        7.6%
 65kt / 72h       19.3%       10.4%       14.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 AL202023 231020 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00     58.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  22.3  24.7  25.2  27.9  24.4  28.8  32.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  63.0  64.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   7.0   5.0   9.0   4.0   8.0   4.0   3.0  F  N  N  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%