Rapid Intensification Guidance AL202023 231020 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.10 58.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 75.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 50.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.4 26.0 25.2 24.1 22.8 18.4 28.7 21.9 N N N N N F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 56.0 58.0 67.0 74.0 75.0 77.0 68.0 58.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 99.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 61.0 24.0 -11.0 23.0 68.0 65.0 18.0 82.0 N U U U N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 66.0 66.0 67.0 62.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 7.0 10.0 13.0 5.0 11.0 7.0 11.0 U N U U N U N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 46.3% 24.3% 35.3% 25kt / 24h 54.2% 61.7% 57.9% 30kt / 24h 45.7% 55.2% 50.4% 35kt / 24h 39.8% 55.2% 47.5% 40kt / 24h 38.4% 53.6% 46.0% 45kt / 36h 39.0% 47.4% 43.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 27.2% 13.6% 55kt / 48h 26.6% 33.2% 29.9% 70kt / 48h 12.0% 13.0% 12.5% 65kt / 72h 22.7% 16.2% 19.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.62 AL202023 231020 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.10 58.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.4 26.0 25.2 24.1 22.8 18.4 28.7 21.9 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 66.0 66.0 67.0 62.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 7.0 10.0 13.0 5.0 11.0 7.0 11.0 F N F F N F N F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%