Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202023 231021 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50     59.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  23.2  22.5  24.6  19.7  20.2  26.2  29.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  67.0  74.0  75.0  79.0  74.0  62.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  99.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0   0.0  -1.0  12.0  24.0  40.0  66.0  85.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  63.0  65.0  68.0  68.0  65.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  10.0   9.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   6.0   2.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.6%        7.4%       10.5%
 25kt / 24h       19.6%       28.7%       24.1%
 30kt / 24h       18.0%       19.3%       18.6%
 35kt / 24h       12.6%       19.3%       15.9%
 40kt / 24h       12.6%       19.3%       15.9%
 45kt / 36h       22.2%       15.3%       18.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.3%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h       18.0%       14.9%       16.4%
 70kt / 48h        7.0%        3.1%        5.1%
 65kt / 72h       21.0%        6.4%       13.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.68

 AL202023 231021 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50     59.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  23.2  22.5  24.6  19.7  20.2  26.2  29.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  63.0  65.0  68.0  68.0  65.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  10.0   9.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   6.0   2.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%