Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202023 231021 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90     60.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  25.0  27.1  25.0  21.6  31.0  23.5  30.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  71.0  75.0  75.0  81.0  70.0  55.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  94.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  33.0  34.0  44.0  47.0  46.0  61.0  68.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  64.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  66.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  16.0   4.0   6.0  14.0   4.0   8.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.0%       10.7%       14.4%
 25kt / 24h       25.5%       33.2%       29.4%
 30kt / 24h       23.2%       23.7%       23.5%
 35kt / 24h       23.2%       23.7%       23.5%
 40kt / 24h       23.2%       23.7%       23.5%
 45kt / 36h       25.0%       15.2%       20.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.0%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h       12.5%       11.2%       11.9%
 70kt / 48h        4.5%        1.8%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h       13.6%        3.7%        8.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.70

 AL202023 231021 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90     60.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  25.0  27.1  25.0  21.6  31.0  23.5  30.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  64.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  66.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  16.0   4.0   6.0  14.0   4.0   8.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%