Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202023 231021 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60     60.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  25.3  24.9  20.7  26.3  28.3  26.1  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  77.0  76.0  78.0  78.0  62.0  54.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  89.3  87.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  45.0  55.0  43.0  62.0  64.0  93.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  65.0  65.0  68.0  66.0  61.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0   5.0   4.0   6.0   4.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       24.5%       10.4%       17.4%
 25kt / 24h       35.2%       33.0%       34.1%
 30kt / 24h       35.2%       24.9%       30.1%
 35kt / 24h       35.2%       24.9%       30.1%
 40kt / 24h       35.2%       24.9%       30.1%
 45kt / 36h       32.1%       11.6%       21.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.6%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h       13.1%        9.4%       11.2%
 70kt / 48h        5.6%        1.3%        3.5%
 65kt / 72h       15.6%        2.6%        9.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.68

 AL202023 231021 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60     60.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  25.3  24.9  20.7  26.3  28.3  26.1  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  65.0  65.0  68.0  66.0  61.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0   5.0   4.0   6.0   4.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%