Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202023 231021 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60     61.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  25.1  23.1  22.4  30.7  22.3  36.9  41.5  N  N  N  N  U  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   79.0  75.0  77.0  79.0  67.0  55.0  46.0  32.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  89.3  87.0  82.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  48.0  41.0  48.0  36.0  37.0  70.0  88.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  65.0  57.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   6.0   8.0  13.0   4.0  10.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.0%        8.9%       15.4%
 25kt / 24h       30.9%       29.7%       30.3%
 30kt / 24h       30.9%       20.8%       25.8%
 35kt / 24h       30.9%       20.8%       25.8%
 40kt / 24h       30.9%       20.8%       25.8%
 45kt / 36h       24.5%        8.0%       16.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.1%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        8.8%        6.9%        7.8%
 70kt / 48h        3.9%        0.9%        2.4%
 65kt / 72h        7.3%        1.3%        4.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.64

 AL202023 231021 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60     61.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  25.1  23.1  22.4  30.7  22.3  36.9  41.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  65.0  57.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   6.0   8.0  13.0   4.0  10.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  F  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%