Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202023 231022 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50     61.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  25.2  24.4  27.3  29.6  31.8  41.0  49.8  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  76.0  79.0  77.0  60.0  48.0  38.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  87.0  84.6  82.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  51.0  47.0  61.0  27.0  54.0  23.0  87.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  67.0  58.0  53.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   6.0   4.0   5.0   1.0   1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.7%        6.4%       10.1%
 25kt / 24h       21.5%       23.8%       22.6%
 30kt / 24h       18.9%       15.8%       17.4%
 35kt / 24h       15.6%       15.8%       15.7%
 40kt / 24h       15.6%       15.8%       15.7%
 45kt / 36h       16.0%        5.4%       10.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        5.7%        4.9%        5.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        0.5%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        3.1%        0.6%        1.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.60

 AL202023 231022 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50     61.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  25.2  24.4  27.3  29.6  31.8  41.0  49.8  N  N  N  N  N  N VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  67.0  58.0  53.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   6.0   4.0   5.0   1.0   1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%