Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202023 231022 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00     62.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  28.2  28.6  30.4  26.1  34.6  37.7  51.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  80.0  77.0  67.0  56.0  48.0  44.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  87.0  87.0  84.6  84.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  91.0  75.0  43.0  18.0  57.0  85.0 155.0  N  F  N  N  U  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  65.0  55.0  53.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  14.0   9.0   8.0  13.0   2.0   4.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.7%        6.8%       10.3%
 25kt / 24h       22.9%       24.2%       23.5%
 30kt / 24h       17.9%       15.3%       16.6%
 35kt / 24h       14.3%       15.3%       14.8%
 40kt / 24h       14.3%       15.3%       14.8%
 45kt / 36h       14.2%        5.8%       10.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        4.7%        4.5%        4.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        0.5%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        5.4%        0.7%        3.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.56

 AL202023 231022 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00     62.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  28.2  28.6  30.4  26.1  34.6  37.7  51.2  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  65.0  55.0  53.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  14.0   9.0   8.0  13.0   2.0   4.0   9.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%