Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202023 231022 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70     62.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  30.2  30.3  27.2  28.1  36.1  41.3  58.1  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   78.0  74.0  68.0  63.0  59.0  53.0  40.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  92.0  92.0  89.6  85.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0  67.0  37.0  20.0  37.0  57.0 104.0 101.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  59.0  54.0  49.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0   8.0  10.0  10.0   2.0   2.0  -2.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.6%        3.6%        4.6%
 25kt / 24h       11.2%       15.8%       13.5%
 30kt / 24h        8.5%        8.5%        8.5%
 35kt / 24h        4.6%        8.4%        6.5%
 40kt / 24h        4.6%        8.4%        6.5%
 45kt / 36h        8.1%        4.2%        6.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        3.2%        3.3%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.3%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        4.7%        0.5%        2.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.54

 AL202023 231022 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70     62.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  30.2  30.3  27.2  28.1  36.1  41.3  58.1  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  59.0  54.0  49.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0   8.0  10.0  10.0   2.0   2.0  -2.0  16.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%