Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202023 231023 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20     63.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  31.0  31.0  31.5  31.1  45.1  53.6  65.7  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  46.0  31.0  30.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  89.3  87.0  87.0  84.6  80.1  73.6  69.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0   8.0  32.0  32.0  54.0  78.0 104.0 107.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  66.0  59.0  53.0  51.0  47.0  41.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   9.0  11.0   3.0   3.0  -1.0  10.0  12.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.1%        7.4%       12.8%
 25kt / 24h       18.1%       20.3%       19.2%
 30kt / 24h       17.0%       13.0%       15.0%
 35kt / 24h       14.6%       13.0%       13.8%
 40kt / 24h       14.6%       13.0%       13.8%
 45kt / 36h       10.8%        4.9%        7.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        2.2%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.40

 AL202023 231023 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20     63.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  31.0  31.0  31.5  31.1  45.1  53.6  65.7  N  N  N  N  N VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  66.0  59.0  53.0  51.0  47.0  41.0  N  N  N  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   9.0  11.0   3.0   3.0  -1.0  10.0  12.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%