Rapid Intensification Guidance AL202023 231023 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.00 64.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 48.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 32.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.5 32.2 32.8 35.6 33.7 46.2 61.8 74.0 U U U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 62.0 59.0 57.0 51.0 37.0 29.0 30.0 25.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 94.3 92.0 92.0 89.6 89.6 85.1 74.4 68.5 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 23.0 70.0 97.0 85.0 85.0 100.0 154.0 100.0 U N F F F F VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 64.0 58.0 57.0 54.0 48.0 44.0 37.0 N N U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 11.0 6.0 10.0 8.0 9.0 34.0 55.0 U U N U U U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 8.3% 3.5% 5.9% 25kt / 24h 10.8% 12.5% 11.6% 30kt / 24h 8.0% 6.4% 7.2% 35kt / 24h 4.6% 6.4% 5.5% 40kt / 24h 3.3% 6.4% 4.9% 45kt / 36h 5.4% 3.0% 4.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 1.4% 0.9% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.32 AL202023 231023 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.00 64.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.5 32.2 32.8 35.6 33.7 46.2 61.8 74.0 N N F F F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 64.0 58.0 57.0 54.0 48.0 44.0 37.0 N N F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 11.0 6.0 10.0 8.0 9.0 34.0 55.0 F F N F F F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.5%