Rapid Intensification Guidance AL202023 231023 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.60 64.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 40.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 27.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.50 F TC SIZE [%] 88.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.1 36.3 38.9 34.9 42.8 56.0 66.1 66.2 U U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 64.0 60.0 48.0 37.0 27.0 30.0 23.0 20.0 N N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 92.0 92.0 89.6 89.6 85.1 78.6 68.5 61.2 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 47.0 101.0 37.0 55.0 79.0 121.0 82.0 71.0 N F N N N F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 58.0 57.0 55.0 50.0 49.0 44.0 42.0 N U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 6.0 9.0 7.0 2.0 9.0 35.0 43.0 U N U N N U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.2% 1.5% 2.4% 25kt / 24h 3.4% 5.4% 4.4% 30kt / 24h 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 35kt / 24h 1.3% 2.2% 1.8% 40kt / 24h 1.3% 2.2% 1.8% 45kt / 36h 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.28 AL202023 231023 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.60 64.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 88.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.1 36.3 38.9 34.9 42.8 56.0 66.1 66.2 F F F F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 58.0 57.0 55.0 50.0 49.0 44.0 42.0 N F F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 6.0 9.0 7.0 2.0 9.0 35.0 43.0 F N F N N F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.4% 1.6% 1.0%