Rapid Intensification Guidance AL202023 231023 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.10 63.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 47.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 18.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.50 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.6 33.3 33.2 30.4 43.9 57.0 63.8 55.1 U U U N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 59.0 48.0 37.0 29.0 29.0 26.0 22.0 9.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 97.0 94.6 94.6 90.1 83.6 79.4 66.2 61.0 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 85.0 53.0 62.0 34.0 119.0 131.0 91.0 22.0 F N N N F F F U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 57.0 56.0 53.0 48.0 45.0 43.0 43.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 12.0 11.0 9.0 10.0 24.0 53.0 26.0 N U U U U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.9% 1.3% 1.6% 25kt / 24h 3.5% 6.1% 4.8% 30kt / 24h 1.9% 2.7% 2.3% 35kt / 24h 1.1% 2.6% 1.8% 40kt / 24h 0.7% 2.6% 1.6% 45kt / 36h 0.6% 1.1% 0.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.20 AL202023 231023 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.10 63.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.6 33.3 33.2 30.4 43.9 57.0 63.8 55.1 F F F N VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 57.0 56.0 53.0 48.0 45.0 43.0 43.0 F F F F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 12.0 11.0 9.0 10.0 24.0 53.0 26.0 N F F F F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.6% 0.9% 0.8%