Rapid Intensification Guidance AL202023 231024 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.60 63.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 45.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 26.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.9 30.6 31.2 41.2 49.3 63.9 56.9 58.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 50.0 42.0 29.0 27.0 29.0 23.0 9.0 5.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 97.0 94.6 87.9 87.9 83.6 71.6 59.3 53.0 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 38.0 33.0 28.0 70.0 100.0 121.0 26.0 27.0 N N U N F F U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 56.0 54.0 52.0 46.0 41.0 40.0 41.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 9.0 9.0 0.0 10.0 35.0 39.0 20.0 U U U N U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.1% 1.5% 1.8% 25kt / 24h 1.9% 4.8% 3.4% 30kt / 24h 1.2% 2.0% 1.6% 35kt / 24h 0.6% 1.9% 1.2% 40kt / 24h 0.6% 1.9% 1.2% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.12 AL202023 231024 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.60 63.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.9 30.6 31.2 41.2 49.3 63.9 56.9 58.0 N N N VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 56.0 54.0 52.0 46.0 41.0 40.0 41.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 9.0 9.0 0.0 10.0 35.0 39.0 20.0 F F F N F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.4% 1.0% 0.7%