Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202023 231024 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.40     63.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.1  34.3  39.8  47.3  65.5  62.8  52.6  49.6  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  27.0  28.0  30.0  22.0  12.0   4.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.6  87.9  85.7  83.6  71.6  59.3  53.0  48.6  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  20.0  65.0  92.0 121.0   4.0  28.0 -10.0  N  U  N  F  F  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  49.0  46.0  42.0  43.0  43.0  44.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   8.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   9.0  -5.0  -1.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        1.6%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%        4.0%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        1.6%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        1.6%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.96

 AL202023 231024 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.40     63.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.1  34.3  39.8  47.3  65.5  62.8  52.6  49.6  F  F  F VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  49.0  46.0  42.0  43.0  43.0  44.0  F  F  F VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   8.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   9.0  -5.0  -1.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        2.7%        1.8%        2.2%