Rapid Intensification Guidance AL202023 231024 12UTC Storm Located at : 23.90 62.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 31.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 6.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.30 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.9 39.4 47.3 55.8 70.2 50.7 51.4 42.9 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 26.0 25.0 28.0 25.0 17.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 87.9 87.9 83.6 77.4 66.2 53.0 48.6 47.2 N N N U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 32.0 69.0 82.0 92.0 110.0 32.0 -16.0 -33.0 N N N F F N U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 51.0 48.0 45.0 42.0 42.0 41.0 43.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 2.0 0.0 -1.0 10.0 17.0 -11.0 2.0 U N N N U U F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.8% 0.7% 1.3% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 1.3% 1.0% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.82 AL202023 231024 12UTC Storm Located at : 23.90 62.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.9 39.4 47.3 55.8 70.2 50.7 51.4 42.9 F F VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 51.0 48.0 45.0 42.0 42.0 41.0 43.0 F F F VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 2.0 0.0 -1.0 10.0 17.0 -11.0 2.0 F N N N F F U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 4.0% 2.9% 3.4%