Rapid Intensification Guidance AL202023 231024 18UTC Storm Located at : 24.20 62.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 52.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 25.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.7 44.0 51.8 61.1 57.8 46.0 44.0 34.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 25.0 27.0 27.0 22.0 11.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 87.9 83.6 77.4 73.5 59.3 53.0 47.2 47.2 N N U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 74.0 98.0 91.0 126.0 52.0 15.0 -15.0 -19.0 N F F F N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 46.0 43.0 44.0 42.0 40.0 42.0 47.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 4.0 0.0 5.0 41.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 N N N N VU U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.7% 0.7% 1.2% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 1.1% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.62 AL202023 231024 18UTC Storm Located at : 24.20 62.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.7 44.0 51.8 61.1 57.8 46.0 44.0 34.9 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 46.0 43.0 44.0 42.0 40.0 42.0 47.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 4.0 0.0 5.0 41.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 N N N N VF F N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 8.0% 4.8% 6.4%