Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202023 231026 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.10     57.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        58.7  51.8  41.4  37.4  30.1  33.4  34.8  35.9 VU VU VU  U  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   4.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         42.7  36.5  36.5  30.8  30.8  25.4  25.4  25.4  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  29.0 -13.0  -1.0 -14.0  -7.0  30.0   9.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  50.0  47.0  47.0  53.0  60.0  61.0  58.0  U  U VU VU  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  45.0  21.0   9.0   4.0   4.0   8.0   2.0   3.0 VU VU  U  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.98

 AL202023 231026 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.10     57.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.