Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202023 231026 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.30     58.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        52.3  44.3  40.9  33.4  29.2  33.3  30.9  33.0 VU VU VU  U  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         41.5  35.8  35.8  35.8  30.4  30.4  30.4  30.4  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  10.0   4.0  -5.0   8.0  29.0  22.0  36.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  43.0  42.0  45.0  50.0  61.0  57.0  50.0 VU VU VU VU  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.0  11.0   2.0   1.0   5.0   3.0   1.0   0.0 VU  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.66

 AL202023 231026 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.30     58.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.