Rapid Intensification Guidance AL202023 231026 12UTC Storm Located at : 30.50 58.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 8.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.90 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 45.6 40.3 32.5 26.4 30.7 36.1 43.5 39.4 VU U U N U U VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 41.5 35.8 35.8 35.8 35.8 30.4 30.4 29.2 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 39.0 10.0 0.0 -28.0 9.0 9.0 -17.0 -42.0 N U U VU U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 43.0 43.0 45.0 52.0 57.0 52.0 38.0 VU VU VU VU U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 29.0 14.0 13.0 16.0 5.0 4.0 0.0 -8.0 VU U U U N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.66 AL202023 231026 12UTC Storm Located at : 30.50 58.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75.