Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202023 231026 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.00     59.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.9  30.5  26.0  29.4  39.8  45.5  54.4  48.2  U  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.8  35.8  30.4  30.4  26.7  22.0  17.7  18.8  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0   1.0 -27.0  15.0  50.0  43.0 -57.0  13.0  U  U VU  U  N  N VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  42.0  42.0  45.0  56.0  56.0  53.0  50.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   9.0   9.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.1%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.34

 AL202023 231026 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.00     59.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.