Rapid Intensification Guidance AL202023 231027 12UTC Storm Located at : 32.00 61.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.80 F TC SIZE [%] 80.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.0 35.9 37.8 38.6 44.5 38.0 38.9 39.6 U U U U VU U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 13.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 49.2 49.2 45.5 45.5 44.3 47.9 55.8 58.6 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 17.0 22.0 31.0 5.0 8.0 -21.0-127.0 -93.0 U U N U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 50.0 53.0 53.0 49.0 45.0 36.0 34.0 VU U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 3.0 0.0 -5.0 -1.0 -1.0 2.0 2.0 U N N F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.90 AL202023 231027 12UTC Storm Located at : 32.00 61.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.