Rapid Intensification Guidance AL202023 231027 18UTC Storm Located at : 32.30 61.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 79.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.7 37.2 40.3 42.5 41.1 37.0 46.1 39.9 U U U VU VU U VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 10.0 25.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 49.2 50.4 49.2 49.2 49.2 53.0 58.6 69.3 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 13.0 39.0 2.0 -5.0 2.0 -28.0-131.0 -90.0 U N U U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 53.0 53.0 49.0 42.0 33.0 29.0 26.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 2.0 -1.0 1.0 -12.0 2.0 -8.0 0.0 N N N N F N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.02 AL202023 231027 18UTC Storm Located at : 32.30 61.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.