Rapid Intensification Guidance AL202023 231028 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.60 61.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 9.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.8 38.9 43.0 47.9 37.8 46.1 45.7 34.8 U U VU VU U VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 7.0 22.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 54.2 54.2 52.9 52.9 56.7 63.6 68.0 79.4 U U U U U U U N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 14.0 8.0 -25.0 -20.0 -6.0 -48.0-106.0 -61.0 U U VU VU U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 54.0 52.0 48.0 39.0 31.0 27.0 27.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 -1.0 3.0 0.0 -11.0 0.0 -2.0 0.0 N N N N F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.96 AL202023 231028 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.60 61.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.