Rapid Intensification Guidance AL202023 231028 12UTC Storm Located at : 33.10 59.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.40 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.0 45.9 43.5 36.7 43.3 47.6 35.1 30.2 VU VU VU U VU VU U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 19.0 26.0 31.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 54.3 53.2 56.7 56.7 61.7 73.0 77.7 84.4 U U U U U U N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -35.0 -24.0 -20.0 1.0 -54.0 -60.0 -68.0 -63.0 VU VU VU U VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 49.0 44.0 38.0 28.0 25.0 23.0 20.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 2.0 -4.0 1.0 -3.0 N N F F N F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.66 AL202023 231028 12UTC Storm Located at : 33.10 59.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.