Rapid Intensification Guidance AL202023 231028 18UTC Storm Located at : 33.30 58.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.10 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 44.2 42.9 36.6 37.5 43.4 40.3 38.3 26.0 VU VU U U VU U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 15.0 21.0 27.0 26.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 58.2 61.7 61.7 66.7 72.2 81.1 84.3 87.7 U U U U U N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 8.0 4.0 8.0 -2.0 -88.0 -80.0 -47.0 -20.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 43.0 37.0 34.0 27.0 24.0 24.0 20.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -6.0 -6.0 0.0 -4.0 1.0 0.0 -4.0 F F F N F N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.76 AL202023 231028 18UTC Storm Located at : 33.30 58.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.