Rapid Intensification Guidance AL202023 231029 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.80 56.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.40 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 44.0 40.1 38.1 39.6 40.9 35.7 45.2 32.0 VU U U U VU U VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 1.0 1.0 4.0 10.0 9.0 13.0 17.0 27.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 66.7 71.7 71.7 75.8 83.0 86.1 91.0 92.7 U U U U N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -27.0 13.0 4.0 -70.0 -65.0 -80.0 -59.0 -39.0 VU U U VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 42.0 38.0 33.0 29.0 27.0 27.0 25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -5.0 8.0 9.0 -1.0 3.0 0.0 -1.0 F F U U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.10 AL202023 231029 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.80 56.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.