Rapid Intensification Guidance AL202023 231029 06UTC Storm Located at : 32.60 54.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.10 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.1 38.1 40.1 40.4 38.8 42.0 40.2 40.2 VU U U U U VU U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 1.0 4.0 10.0 7.0 11.0 16.0 20.0 20.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 71.7 71.7 75.8 80.0 83.0 89.3 91.0 91.0 U U U N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -2.0 -28.0 -55.0 -74.0 -61.0 -78.0 -25.0 -25.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 37.0 33.0 32.0 27.0 28.0 25.0 25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 6.0 5.0 -4.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 F N N F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.30 AL202023 231029 06UTC Storm Located at : 32.60 54.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.