Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL212023 231024 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20     83.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  12.7  12.7  12.7  12.7  12.7  12.7  12.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        3.6%       16.5%       10.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        6.7%        3.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        6.0%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        6.0%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        7.1%       24.1%       15.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.9%        4.4%
 55kt / 48h       26.1%       24.4%       25.2%
 70kt / 48h       11.7%       12.9%       12.3%
 65kt / 72h       46.2%       43.4%       44.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 AL212023 231024 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20     83.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  12.7  12.7  12.7  12.7  12.7  12.7  12.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%