Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222023 231116 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00     81.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.6  45.4  49.8  44.9  44.2  32.3  72.1 107.5  U VU VU VU VU  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  63.0  83.0 133.0  63.0  61.0  13.0   0.0  N  N  N VF  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 122.9 101.2  62.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   157.0 137.0 108.0  68.0 106.0  92.0  80.0 122.0 VF VF  F  N  F  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  69.0  64.0  60.0  57.0  56.0  58.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   5.0   1.0   9.0 -23.0  -7.0 -11.0  N  N  N  N  U VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        4.0%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        2.8%        1.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        3.0%        1.4%        2.2%
 70kt / 48h        3.0%        0.6%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        0.2%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.72

 AL222023 231116 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00     81.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.6  45.4  49.8  44.9  44.2  32.3  72.1 107.5  F VF VF VF VF  N VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  69.0  64.0  60.0  57.0  56.0  58.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   5.0   1.0   9.0 -23.0  -7.0 -11.0  N  N  N  N  F VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%