Rapid Intensification Guidance AL222023 231117 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 80.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 19.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 8.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 68.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 53.5 53.4 49.6 45.0 37.5 69.6 100.2 110.6 VU VU VU VU U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 74.0 128.0 104.0 59.0 59.0 11.0 0.0 0.0 N VF F N N U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 118.6 99.4 71.7 54.1 F F F F N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 129.0 18.0 36.0 53.0 65.0 73.0 94.0 98.0 F U N N N N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 60.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 66.0 60.0 52.0 N N U U U N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 3.0 6.0 4.0 -9.0 1.0 -7.0 -31.0 N N N N F N F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.4% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.2% 0.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.74 AL222023 231117 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 80.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 68.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 53.5 53.4 49.6 45.0 37.5 69.6 100.2 110.6 VF VF VF VF F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 60.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 66.0 60.0 52.0 N N F F F N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 3.0 6.0 4.0 -9.0 1.0 -7.0 -31.0 N N N N U N U VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 4.1% 0.3% 2.2%