Rapid Intensification Guidance AL222023 231117 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.00 79.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 6.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.50 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 54.5 48.3 46.8 41.3 56.3 82.8 107.0 107.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 138.0 97.0 54.0 55.0 17.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 VF F N N U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 129.6 122.9 106.6 78.0 58.7 58.7 F F F N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 3.0 11.0 12.0 46.0 16.0 29.0 18.0 18.0 U U U N U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 58.0 59.0 61.0 68.0 65.0 56.0 56.0 N U U N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 -4.0 -1.0 10.0 2.0 -7.0 -14.0 -14.0 N F N U N F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.48 AL222023 231117 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.00 79.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 54.5 48.3 46.8 41.3 56.3 82.8 107.0 107.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 58.0 59.0 61.0 68.0 65.0 56.0 56.0 N F F N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 -4.0 -1.0 10.0 2.0 -7.0 -14.0 -14.0 N U N F N U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 4.7% 0.3% 2.5%