Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL222023 231117 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00     78.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.6  47.2  39.6  41.2  69.3  85.6  99.0  99.0 VU VU  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  57.0  51.0  64.0  10.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 129.6 127.3 112.4  92.7  72.9  55.9  55.9  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  25.0   9.0   4.0  30.0  37.0  19.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  63.0  68.0  73.0  73.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -1.0   0.0  11.0  27.0   7.0 -11.0 -11.0  N  N  N  U VU  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.22

 AL222023 231117 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00     78.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.6  47.2  39.6  41.2  69.3  85.6  99.0  99.0 VF VF  F VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  63.0  68.0  73.0  73.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -1.0   0.0  11.0  27.0   7.0 -11.0 -11.0  N  N  N  F VF  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.8%        0.2%        0.5%