Rapid Intensification Guidance AL222023 231118 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.30 77.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.50 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 49.7 39.5 39.7 57.1 65.2 72.3 72.3 72.3 VU U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 54.0 54.0 62.0 19.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 129.6 118.6 112.4 106.6 78.0 61.7 61.7 61.7 F N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 59.0 71.0 85.0 111.0 110.0 149.0 149.0 149.0 N N F F F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 62.0 69.0 72.0 75.0 76.0 76.0 76.0 N N N N F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 17.0 11.0 16.0 19.0 19.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 U U U VU VU N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.80 AL222023 231118 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.30 77.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 49.7 39.5 39.7 57.1 65.2 72.3 72.3 72.3 VF F F VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 62.0 69.0 72.0 75.0 76.0 76.0 76.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 17.0 11.0 16.0 19.0 19.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 F F F VF VF N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 22.1% 0.3% 11.2%