Rapid Intensification Guidance EP012023 230627 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.30 105.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 89.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 84.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.9 22.9 21.1 22.4 22.0 16.1 24.3 35.4 N N N N N F N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 12.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 8.0 11.0 7.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 124.3 122.0 122.0 117.3 112.9 106.5 94.8 91.2 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 79.0 74.0 78.0 92.0 58.0 45.0 38.0 67.0 N N N F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 77.0 77.0 76.0 77.0 77.0 74.0 71.0 F F F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -11.0 -7.0 -4.0 -14.0 -3.0 -3.0 0.0 F F F F VF N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 11.6% 13.9% 12.7% 25kt / 24h 34.2% 57.9% 46.0% 30kt / 24h 16.4% 45.5% 31.0% 35kt / 24h 13.7% 45.5% 29.6% 40kt / 24h 8.0% 42.7% 25.4% 45kt / 36h 16.8% 59.7% 38.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 40.7% 20.3% 55kt / 48h 17.7% 3.7% 10.7% 70kt / 48h 3.7% 30.2% 16.9% 65kt / 72h 1.5% 20.4% 11.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.34 EP012023 230627 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.30 105.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.9 22.9 21.1 22.4 22.0 16.1 24.3 35.4 N N N N N U N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 77.0 77.0 76.0 77.0 77.0 74.0 71.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -11.0 -7.0 -4.0 -14.0 -3.0 -3.0 0.0 U U U U VU N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%