Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012023 230628 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    106.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  19.8  20.7  20.5  14.6  24.0  30.9  38.5  N  N  N  N  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  11.0  11.0  12.0   8.0  11.0  14.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.0 117.0 112.3 110.1 105.7 103.6 101.5  97.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    91.0  98.0 117.0  88.0  28.0  44.0  24.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  78.0  78.0  76.0  79.0  77.0  76.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0  -8.0  -5.0  -7.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0 VF  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.8%       13.1%       13.0%
 25kt / 24h       38.7%       54.4%       46.5%
 30kt / 24h       19.7%       41.2%       30.5%
 35kt / 24h       14.6%       41.2%       27.9%
 40kt / 24h       11.5%       39.7%       25.6%
 45kt / 36h       17.8%       55.7%       36.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       36.7%       18.4%
 55kt / 48h       10.2%        3.2%        6.7%
 70kt / 48h        3.2%       21.0%       12.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%       11.1%        5.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.22

 EP012023 230628 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    106.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  19.8  20.7  20.5  14.6  24.0  30.9  38.5  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  78.0  78.0  76.0  79.0  77.0  76.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0  -8.0  -5.0  -7.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0 VU  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%