Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012023 230628 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    107.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  21.4  22.0  20.6  14.5  26.0  37.4  35.4  N  N  N  N  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  11.0  12.0  11.0   8.0  14.0   9.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.0 102.3 100.1  95.7  93.6  91.5  78.0  74.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0  88.0  57.0  39.0  19.0  37.0  25.0  22.0  F  F  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  79.0  76.0  74.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -7.0  -9.0 -12.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.9%       14.6%       18.3%
 25kt / 24h       32.1%       45.8%       39.0%
 30kt / 24h       21.2%       34.8%       28.0%
 35kt / 24h       21.2%       34.8%       28.0%
 40kt / 24h       21.2%       34.2%       27.7%
 45kt / 36h       21.3%       42.9%       32.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       25.0%       12.5%
 55kt / 48h        8.7%       12.8%       10.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%       10.6%        6.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        4.0%        2.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.10

 EP012023 230628 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    107.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  21.4  22.0  20.6  14.5  26.0  37.4  35.4  N  N  N  N  U  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  79.0  76.0  74.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -7.0  -9.0 -12.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%