Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012023 230628 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    107.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     92.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  21.4  21.3  14.7  18.7  31.2  36.8  35.5  N  N  N  F  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  14.0  11.0   9.0  10.0  11.0   6.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.3  90.1  90.1  85.7  83.6  71.6  68.0  64.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  66.0  54.0  46.0  49.0  20.0  28.0 -13.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  78.0  76.0  74.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -9.0 -12.0  -6.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       47.6%       28.9%       38.3%
 25kt / 24h       52.2%       64.3%       58.3%
 30kt / 24h       42.8%       63.9%       53.4%
 35kt / 24h       42.8%       63.9%       53.4%
 40kt / 24h       30.9%       60.4%       45.7%
 45kt / 36h       30.4%       52.6%       41.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       37.0%       18.5%
 55kt / 48h        8.9%       14.2%       11.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        9.9%        5.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.7%        1.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.04

 EP012023 230628 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    107.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  21.4  21.3  14.7  18.7  31.2  36.8  35.5  N  N  N  U  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  78.0  76.0  74.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -9.0 -12.0  -6.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%