Rapid Intensification Guidance EP012023 230628 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.30 108.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 84.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 43.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.3 25.9 17.8 13.3 21.5 32.4 32.0 37.9 N N F F N U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 13.0 9.0 8.0 10.0 8.0 3.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 87.3 85.1 80.7 80.7 66.6 63.0 59.4 46.5 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 58.0 69.0 58.0 45.0 26.0 44.0 31.0 13.0 N N N N U N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 75.0 77.0 77.0 75.0 74.0 73.0 73.0 F F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -14.0 -6.0 -2.0 -4.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 F VF F N F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 42.4% 24.5% 33.5% 25kt / 24h 49.1% 57.5% 53.3% 30kt / 24h 42.5% 56.4% 49.5% 35kt / 24h 42.5% 56.4% 49.5% 40kt / 24h 27.8% 54.1% 40.9% 45kt / 36h 22.7% 37.5% 30.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 22.5% 11.2% 55kt / 48h 3.6% 7.7% 5.6% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.96 EP012023 230628 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.30 108.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.3 25.9 17.8 13.3 21.5 32.4 32.0 37.9 N N N U N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 75.0 77.0 77.0 75.0 74.0 73.0 73.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -14.0 -6.0 -2.0 -4.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 U VU U N U N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%