Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012023 230629 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    108.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  16.0  12.8  15.7  23.6  28.1  30.6  37.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  10.0   8.0   9.0  11.0   5.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.1  80.7  80.7  78.6  66.6  63.0  61.2  48.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  50.0  56.0  50.0  32.0  29.0 -16.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  77.0  76.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  74.0  73.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0  -5.0  -4.0  -3.0  -1.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.4%       12.1%       13.7%
 25kt / 24h       26.2%       39.1%       32.6%
 30kt / 24h       18.3%       36.2%       27.3%
 35kt / 24h       17.9%       36.2%       27.0%
 40kt / 24h       11.4%       33.8%       22.6%
 45kt / 36h       11.0%       17.1%       14.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.7%        3.9%
 55kt / 48h        2.5%        3.8%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 EP012023 230629 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    108.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  16.0  12.8  15.7  23.6  28.1  30.6  37.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  77.0  76.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  74.0  73.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0  -5.0  -4.0  -3.0  -1.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%