Rapid Intensification Guidance EP012023 230629 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.80 110.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 55.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 31.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.30 F TC SIZE [%] 77.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.8 15.6 19.3 21.1 24.2 26.5 31.6 31.7 F F N N N N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 10.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 75.7 63.5 63.5 61.6 58.0 56.2 43.0 40.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 40.0 74.0 62.0 53.0 3.0 -30.0 -18.0 32.0 N N N N U VU U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 75.0 73.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 69.0 70.0 F F N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -2.0 -5.0 -3.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 N N F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 17.3% 11.0% 14.1% 25kt / 24h 14.8% 20.2% 17.5% 30kt / 24h 13.6% 15.3% 14.5% 35kt / 24h 13.6% 15.3% 14.5% 40kt / 24h 13.6% 15.3% 14.5% 45kt / 36h 6.3% 6.4% 6.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 2.3% 1.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.46 EP012023 230629 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.80 110.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75.