Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012023 230629 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    110.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  17.8  21.4  24.3  22.7  29.6  27.7  29.1  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   7.0   6.0   5.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.5  63.5  61.6  52.7  46.1  43.0  43.0  27.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  35.0  50.0  46.0  -2.0 -32.0  -4.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  U VU  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  71.0  68.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -7.0  -3.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.6%        6.4%        8.0%
 25kt / 24h        6.5%       10.6%        8.5%
 30kt / 24h        5.5%        7.0%        6.3%
 35kt / 24h        4.6%        7.0%        5.8%
 40kt / 24h        4.6%        6.9%        5.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%        3.0%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.10

 EP012023 230629 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    110.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.