Rapid Intensification Guidance EP012023 230630 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.50 111.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 50.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 16.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 83.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.7 19.6 20.9 21.5 25.4 28.3 27.4 28.8 F N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 7.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 58.5 47.7 47.7 46.0 41.1 29.4 26.7 24.2 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 29.0 29.0 38.0 -9.0 -29.0 0.0 45.0 59.0 N N N U VU U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 71.0 70.0 67.0 63.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 F N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 10.9% 4.7% 7.8% 25kt / 24h 4.2% 6.2% 5.2% 30kt / 24h 4.2% 3.8% 4.0% 35kt / 24h 2.8% 3.8% 3.3% 40kt / 24h 2.8% 3.8% 3.3% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.86 EP012023 230630 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.50 111.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.