Rapid Intensification Guidance EP012023 230630 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.60 111.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 6.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.60 F TC SIZE [%] 59.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.0 21.7 21.7 23.6 30.2 24.9 27.4 23.5 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 7.0 4.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 51.6 42.7 41.0 41.0 24.4 21.7 21.7 19.2 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 7.0 31.0 -28.0 3.0 33.0 39.0 47.0 32.0 U N VU U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 71.0 71.0 68.0 63.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 12.5% 2.5% 7.5% 25kt / 24h 2.1% 2.4% 2.3% 30kt / 24h 2.1% 1.1% 1.6% 35kt / 24h 1.2% 1.0% 1.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.78 EP012023 230630 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.60 111.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85.