Rapid Intensification Guidance EP012023 230630 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.10 111.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 31.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 19.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.70 F TC SIZE [%] 50.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.3 23.8 24.1 27.0 28.7 26.5 25.3 20.2 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 42.7 41.0 41.0 27.2 24.4 21.7 10.9 10.9 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 8.0 -11.0 -1.0 7.0 49.0 35.0 57.0 9.0 U U U U N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 68.0 67.0 71.0 72.0 70.0 65.0 59.0 N N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.1% 1.2% 3.2% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.1% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.38 EP012023 230630 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.10 111.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85.