Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012023 230630 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    112.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     47.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  25.0  26.3  28.3  26.8  25.0  19.2  18.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         31.0  21.5  17.2  17.2  14.4   3.2   0.9  -1.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0 -26.0  29.0  41.0  30.0  58.0  -8.0   4.0  U VU  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  68.0  69.0  68.0  63.0  58.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.6%        0.0%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.04

 EP012023 230630 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    112.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.