Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012023 230701 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    113.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  26.4  22.5  23.1  22.5  18.0  18.6  15.6  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         43.6  43.6  40.8  40.8  29.3  23.8  22.7  21.7  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0   5.0   4.0  14.0  13.0  -7.0  -9.0 -14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  63.0  57.0  50.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   3.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.78

 EP012023 230701 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    113.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.