Rapid Intensification Guidance EP012023 230701 12UTC Storm Located at : 18.20 114.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 8.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.70 F TC SIZE [%] 61.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.3 21.6 20.1 20.2 20.0 19.1 20.9 19.8 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 58.6 55.8 55.8 44.3 40.9 38.8 36.7 33.7 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 10.0 11.0 18.0 -15.0 7.0 -25.0 -21.0 U U U U U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 67.0 65.0 65.0 63.0 60.0 52.0 46.0 N N N N N N U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 5.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.40 EP012023 230701 12UTC Storm Located at : 18.20 114.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.