Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012023 230701 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    114.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  20.4  19.3  20.1  16.8  22.9  17.7  17.7  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.8  60.8  49.3  45.9  43.8  42.7  40.7  40.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  -6.0  -3.0  26.0 -18.0 -26.0 -20.0 -20.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  63.0  55.0  45.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   4.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.12

 EP012023 230701 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    114.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.